THE start to this year's sucker season, with prices of 470-500c/kg for the best lines, is a welcome boost for the lamb industry.
With the season hardly conducive to producing lambs, those who have beaten the odds are being rewarded by up to $130 for the best of the heavy new-season lambs.
But how long this can continue is the $64 question - or, more accurately, the $4-plus-a-kilogram question.
Part of the reason for the strong results to date has been the slower flow of suckers on to the market.
Last week, just 34 per cent of all lambs yarded in markets monitored by Meat and Livestock Australia's National Livestock Reporting Service were suckers. Last year, 43 per cent of lambs were suckers.
However, all that may be about to change.
Weekend rain may have halted the flow of some lambs, but more is needed to prevent a big spring flush of suckers on to the market with the next few weeks.
Irrigators, faced with small, if any, water allocations, will be left with little choice but to quit most of their lambs now, because they have no means of finishing them.
It's a similar scenario for the dryland operators, who if they haven't been lucky enough to get good rains this season will think hard about selling off all their lambs and holding very few over for autumn and winter.
It would take a brave farmer to punt on better prices next year, especially when staring down the barrel of high grain prices and limited paddock feed.
It's a dilemma, too, for those who look lucky to harvest a crop, which will almost certainly be worth more sold as grain than put down animals' throats.
The talk around the saleyards is, with no forward commitment of processors for prices next autumn, it's better to take the money now and run rather than risk holding on.
Those who are making a tough decision to cut in harder than normal to their drafts have not been punished for their actions to date.
These lighter, secondary lambs are hardly making the $130 a head or 500c/kg the best suckers achieve, but they are still selling well.
At four months old, a half-decent lamb is making its $80, and though it may gall the traditional producer who likes to take suckers on to the 22-24kg carcass range, it's still money in the bank.
It's a view reinforced by Landmark's national livestock sales specialist, Mark Barton.
Mr Barton said although prices were good for lambs now, he predicted a big flood of numbers on to the market within a few weeks unless there was significant rain.
"There will be pressure on pastures and I feel we will see a lot of secondary suckers come on to the market later this month and into October," he said.
"In the past a lot of people have kept numbers on over summer and not made much from them, so with the season looking tight they will take a very conservative approach to stocking rates."
Goolgowi, NSW, lamb producers Brian and Scott Campbell were happy when their 224 second-cross lambs made $116-$122 at Griffith last week.
It was back slightly from the $115-$128 they received for a similar number they sold a fortnight ago, but they are still averaging close to $120 for lambs sold so far.
Without a decent water allocation, the Campbells have been forced to switch their operation from turning off a mix of suckers and old lambs, to trying to get everything off their farm by early spring.
"When even half-finished lambs are making $70-$80 with no grain, you have to think it's a good option to sell them now," Brian Campbell said.
"People are more reluctant to hold on as it is such a cost to carry the lambs through. And the money is better in the bank than walking round the paddock."
Fellow producer Paul Condon from Benerembah could only manage to finish 49 lambs for the Griffith sale. Although he was happy receiving close to $120, he said it would be a while before he could get another draft good enough to sell.
"We are considering whether we might have to sacrifice some of the lambs - with no irrigation allocation, what can you do?" Mr Condon said.
The $30-$40 difference between selling immature and unfinished lambs compared with heavier finished types is a bitter pill to swallow, but that difference may be even greater as more and more lambs are forced on to the market.
And when grain prices could make the national debt look like pocket money, it's medicine many lamb producers may take this spring.





