THE future looks bleak numbers-wise for the first-cross ewe. Not only are yardings down for the traditional prime lamb mother, but fewer and fewer sheepmen are keen to breed the Border Leicester-Merino.
That is evident in the recent collapse of sales of Border Leicester rams.
Four years ago, when lamb was as high at 450c/kg and Victorians were paying $160-$200 for replacement ewes, Border Leicester rams were as scarce as hen's teeth.
"That encouraged an over-supply of rams," principal of Wongajong Border Leicester stud at Deniliquin, Allan Wilson, said.
That over-supply had caught up with ram breeders.
The Superborder Wongajong stud felt the pinch last week, selling just 51 of its 98 rams for an average of $601.
Mr Wilson also blamed the drought and a push into cropping for falling sheep numbers.
Other breeders or former breeders of first-cross ewes say other factors are also at play.
The drought and its impact on the composition of the Merino flocks are big factors.
There is also competition for the first-cross ewe from other breeds such as the Dohne, the Dorper and, in higher rainfall districts, the composite ewe.
Consultant and Dohne advocate Bill Mildren said many Riverina sheepmen who until recently would have joined five and six-year-old Merino ewes to a Border Leicester no longer had them.
He said those ewes were the first to go in a drought.
The Merino ewes that were left were being bred back to Merino rams or terminals such as White Suffolk or Poll Dorset.
FS Falkiner and Sons' general manager Bill Newton said the stud was using a terminal prime lamb sire over its secondary ewes, rather than Border Leicester rams.
"With the type of Merino we have its works quite well," Mr Newton said.
Mr Mildren said the push to Dohnes was also having an impact.
"It might be OK to mate a terminal to a Merino but you won't get the same lambing percentage as you will with a first-cross ewe or a Dohne," Mr Mildren said.
The Dohne's higher fertility and wool quality are points being pushed by its fans.
Mr Mildren said a lambing percentage of 118 per cent was being achieved at Uardry with a Dohne-Merino cross and 124 per cent with a three-quarter cross Dohne.
He said the crossing of Dorpers with Merinos was also hitting numbers of the Border Leicester-Merino cross.
There are no longer official figures for first-cross ewes.
Meat and Livestock Australia this year abandoned its annual survey because of concerns about the accuracy of the information from sheepmen.
Its last national survey, in August last year, showed 6.9 million lamb markings from the mating of 6.5 million first-cross ewes in 2006-07.
First-cross ewe joinings were down almost 500,000 on a year earlier.
Those figures suggest the first-cross accounted for nearly 35 per cent of the lamb slaughter for 2007-08. First-cross lambs from Merinos tallied 40 per cent.
Presumably, purebred Merino lambs and composites made up the other 25 per cent.
AWTA wool test throughputs is another indicator of trends.
Wool from the Border Leicester-Merino ewe makes up the bulk of wool in the 26.6 to 30.5-micron categories.
Six years ago this wool amounted to 39.7 million/kg.
Since then it has trended down to last season's 33.6million/kg.
AWTA's general manager of raw wool, Ian Ashman, said these crossbred categories now included increasing quantities of wool shorn from the first and second-cross Dorper Merino.
Although the Dorper is noted for the "shedding" of its fleece, that characteristic doesn't manifest itself completely until the third generation of Dorper crosses, which is why bales of Dorper-Merino fleeces are popping up at wool sales.
So what's the likely supply of first-cross ewes for the forthcoming southern feature sales?
Yarrawonga cancelled its September sale, but local Elders livestock representative, Trent Head, is confident of attracting a small-but-worthwhile yarding of 7000 head for October 16.
Mr Head said he knew of several first-cross ewe breeders who opted to sell their ewe lambs for $120 to slaughter in January this year rather than hold on to them for the feature sales.
Trent said if prime lamb producers wanted first-cross ewes, they must be prepared to help the breeders push through with a fair price.
It's a point echoed by Gerard White of Ballarat's TB White and Sons.
Gerard said first-cross ewe breeders haven't been rewarded for the past two years.
Ballarat's feature sales in December and January are examples.
Last January the top price of $160 and average of $110 were both down almost $40 on their 2005 peak.
At last January's sale, 11/2-year-old ewes sold for as little as $90.
