VICTORIA'S Mallee has had limited sub-soil moisture through the growing season and minimal rainfall over the last two months, leading to yield reductions for grain and oilseed crops and quality concerns, writes Australian Grain Accumulation's Peter Denny.
Most areas have recorded below average in crop rainfall some areas only recording half of their in crop average rainfall .
The retreat of soft commodity prices due to turmoil on world financial markets on set by the credit crunch has also proven to be a headache.
Barley harvest commenced last week across the Mallee region due to a strong dry period finishing crops off.
Early reports have growers concerned that a substantial amount of barley may be down graded to feed quality due to smaller grain size as a result of the dry finish.
Yield results on average have indicted an approx 0.90-1.10mt/Ha across the Mallee region.
Wheat harvest should start around the mid November with the North Western region starting before the east. Current yield expectations for wheat are approximately 0.8-1.0mt/Ha.
The domestic and international market will still be looking to the Northern Mallee to source a large amount of the higher protein milling wheats.
As for the Eastern regions most growers are targeting the stock feed market due to end users being in close proximity.
Canola production this harvest is limited due to many growers cutting their crop for hay especially in dry land N.S.W. regions.
Canola crops around Nagambie/ Murchison are performing best due to higher sub soil moisture, despite this regions in-crop rainfall being well below average.
Yield expectations for Canola are approximately 0.60- 0.80mt/Ha.
From a marketing point of view there is still a significant amount of new crop grain/oilseed uncommitted.
A large amount of Mallee growers are of the opinion that they will fill their on farm storage at harvest and then look to cash prices to inject much needed cash flow into there business.
Barley prices look to be under significant pressure with export values into the key feed barley market of Saudi Arabia slipping by as much as US$30/mt early this week.
This equates to an east coast export parity value for feed barley at around $190 port. Domestic premiums should still be evident in the local market over the harvest period as local consumers accumulate their requirements.
Wheat values have held firm with US wheat futures holding at current levels of around US$195.
The falling Aussie dollar is saving our bacon at the moment, evidence by estimates that if currency was still trading at around AUD/US 90c we could have see port prices sitting around $200.
Basis values continue to be volatile with Geelong port basis currently trading around AUD $26 below US December 08 wheat futures.
The general feeling from growers is that Pools may still play a role for Mallee growers this harvest.
For more information contact Australian Grain Accumulation's Peter Denny in Echuca, Victoria, on (03) 5482 4373.
