AN online market that aims to forecast water availability in dams has been set up by the CSIRO.
CSIRO economists are inviting people in Canberra, Sydney and southern NSW to join the Australian Knowledge Exchange, which it describes as an online prediction market which will test whether trading knowledge can work for natural resource management.
CSIRO economist, Stuart Whitten, said the AKX works like a futures market.
"This study has been set up to find out whether traders can combine their knowledge to predict dam levels in the region, in much the same way as stock market traders predict future prices of commodities like oil," Dr Whitten said.
"Interested people can register online, get $100,000 play money and start trading predictions.
"At the end of each month for three months, the trader who has predicted the dam levels most closely will win a small cash prize."
The CSIRO said knowledge markets worked by providing incentives for people to disclose information essential to the market.
"Like all markets, from fruit markets to the stock market, knowledge markets aggregate information about the value of a resource and express it via the price," the CSIRO said.
"Knowledge markets have great potential in natural resource management, where information is widely dispersed and held by many different people with competing needs.
"In the case of natural resource management, knowledge markets could be used for things like accurate forecasting of crop production, water availability or pest pressure."
The markets would provide a hedging tool for businesses exposed to risks like water availability, allowing them to share and profit from information as well as offset risks.
Dr Whitten is asking a range of water managers and end users to take part in the trial, from farmers to those with just a passing interest.
To register and start trading visit: http://akx.csiro.au/
