LAST week the Australian Bureau of Statistics released its most recent November data on retail sales.
While overall the effect of the economic slowdown hasn't really started to show up as much as we've been led to believe, the ABS trends regarding food sales remains the brightest light in the situation.
Food suppliers in Australia have been feeling the effects of "trading down" for several months as consumers adjust, but what is yet to be felt is the effect of the expected increase in unemployment.
The effects of recession have so far bitten deepest in the US and UK, where food retailers have reported a mixed bag of results. It's useful to look at what is happening there for some insights into what we can expect.
Wal-Mart thinks it will take an earnings hit despite earlier reporting it was weathering the storm well. It cut its earnings forecast last week after Christmas sales failed to meet expectations.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the recession has heightened the battle among food retailers for market share, but patterns are anything but consistent.
Asda, a subsidiary of Wal-Mart, has been doing its best as Brits tighten their spending, attracting market share from leader Tesco, which has tried to rely on changing its image to that of a caring "value" retailer.
Third-quarter sales at Aldi saw a 22 per cent rise while Tesco's stalled to 3.5 per cent.
But the strong performance of the discounters isn't the only story as the "value" pitch by others has paid off to some extent.
Sainsbury's is defying the trend that has beset other premium food retailers: it has experienced its "best-ever" Christmas with a 4.5 per cent rise in sales in the December quarter.
Its cut-price "Basics" range has been its fastest-growing line, with sales up 40 per cent on the year.
Battling through Christmas was one thing though - it will be more interesting to watch what happens now the festivities have died down and reality is biting.
Meanwhile, Domino's Pizza, which operates the UK and Ireland franchise of the global home-delivery brand, said sales increased by nearly 9 per cent in the last quarter of the year.
While the share market has been a shocker for most sectors, Domino's UK has outperformed the listed shares in the food sector by 30 per cent.
Similar trends will emerge here - people forced to eat out for some part of the week are trading down to takeaway for more meals, while the sharper takeaway operators are working the "value" nerve effectively as well.
It all comes down to focus - those that have the best "read" on shifting consumer habits will come out of this period with the best results.
Those that think they can tune a few dials and carry on regardless will be scarred.
