ALMOND producers are looking forward to a record crop with larger kernels when the harvest begins next month.
But a global oversupply and reduced demand as a result of the global financial crisis could see world almond prices continue to fall from their peak of about $11/kg in 2005-06.
Almond Board of Australia chief executive Julie Haslett said the latest harvest estimate was for 36,100 tonnes - 38.5 per cent more than last year's 26,055 tonnes - but quality was more difficult to predict.
"The crop on the trees is looking fairly significant," she said.
"A lot of the quality is driven by sizing of kernels. Last year quite a few growers experienced significantly smaller kernels due to restricted water use, which could mean larger kernel sizes this year because it almost puts the tree into a biennial effect.
"The general predictions are for a larger crop with larger kernel size.
"The growth in tonnage has been driven by a lot of young trees coming into production."
Of Australia's 27,290ha of almond groves, half the trees are less than three years old and yet to come into production, while less than 20 per cent of plantings have reached full maturity of eight years or older.
Ms Haslett said drought had created some challenges for growers, but the drier conditions had also reduced the incidence of disease.
She warned that the size of this year's harvest, coupled with current economic conditions, could make it more difficult to shift the crop even at lower prices.
Global almond consumption has doubled in the past decade, from 291,000 tonnes in 1998 to 583,000 tonnes last year.
"(But) California is sitting on a larger carryover of supply than in previous years, due to reduced demand from Europe in particular," Ms Haslett said.
"There has been a slowing of sales that can potentially mean there'll be carryover crop of a significant amount held over for when we're coming into our new season."
California produces 82 per cent of the world's almonds, ahead of Spain (8 per cent) and Australia (3 per cent), although Australia is expected to become the second-largest producer by 2012.
Rising almond prices in the past 15 years have fuelled explosive growth in plantings in the US and Australia, but news reports from California said many growers were being forced to warehouse nuts harvested since August because of poor sales and low prices.
One report said almond prices, which peaked at $US8.36/kg three years ago, fell to $US3.91/kg in September and $US2.20-2.75/kg last month.
