ARGENTINA'S drought-afflicted soybean crop received a favorable amount of rain late Monday and early Tuesday, helping boost expectations that 2008-09 production will be better than previously thought.
Santa Fe, a central province that accounts for a quarter of the country's total soy production, received precipitation of up to 120 millimeters in key areas, Tomas Parenti, an agronomist at the Rosario Grain Exchange in Santa Fe, told Dow Jones Newswires.
"This is very good for soybeans," he said in a telephone interview. "It is very positive."
Between 20 and 100 millimeters of rain fell over a wide area of Santa Fe, with the largest amounts in the Rosario area, he said.
This is a change from the scattered showers that have dominated the weather pattern of the past months, with rainfall averaging 10 millimeters.
Argentina suffering its longest dry spell in decades, with many parts of the farm belt so far this year posting the lowest precipitation in 47 years. The reduction has been between 40 per cent and 60 per cent as compared with historic averages, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.
The Monday to Tuesday rains will help soy crops that were planted late because of parched soils, meaning there is more margin for crop yields to improve, Parenti said. He said some soy crops may have suffered from hail during the storm, but he isn't certain yet about the impact.
In recent weeks, analysts have slashed estimates because of the drought, with parched soils preventing or limiting planted area and the dryness damaging crops or stunting growth.
"Before this rain, the estimate was down to 35 million tons," said Pablo Cefarelli, a trader at the Roagro grain brokerage in Rosario. "Now we are expecting 42 to 45 million tons."
The final output still hinges on more rainfall this month, said Parenti.
"February is a critical month for crop development," he said.
With the drought, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange cut its 2008-09 soybean production estimate to between 34.5 million to 38.2 million metric tonnes, or 17 per cent to 25 per cent less than the 2007-08 season's 46.2 million tonnes.
The US Department of Agriculture is expecting Argentina to produce a record 49.5 million metric tons of soybeans this season.
There was less rain in the other big soy provinces of Buenos Aires and Cordoba, which account for another 50 per cent of total output.
There are some fields "that are still suffering from drought conditions" in those provinces, Parenti said.
Weather forecasters say they expect a cold front to bring denser and more extensive rainfall over the farm belt this Thursday and Friday.
On Monday, Jose Luis Aiello, a climatologist at the Rosario Grain Exchange, said the front could bring rainfall of more than 50 millimeters, which would help improve soy yields.
-By Charles Newbery, contributing to Dow Jones Newswires
