JOHN Brumby has jumped to a massive lead over his Coalition rivals as his popularity surged amid the bushfire crisis last month.
And Labor holds a 20 percentage-point buffer over its Coalition rivals after the distribution of preferences, according to the latest Victorian Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian newspaper during January and February.
The Brumby Government has defied the downward trend of the other state Labor administrations and the Premier has solidified his personal popularity.
The proportion of voters choosing Labor as their first preference has shot up to 46 per cent, while the Liberal primary vote has slumped to a woeful 31per cent, with the popularity of Liberal leader Ted Baillieu also on the slide.
And the Liberals' Coalition partners, the Nationals, have slumped to just 2 per cent.
If an election were held today, the Coalition, which needs to gain 13 seats to claim a majority in parliament, would lose another 10 or so seats on these figures.
The ALP's two-party-preferred vote of 60 per cent in Victoria is the equal highest since 2002, when Newspoll began recording this measure.
Roughly half the poll's sample of 1142 people was taken before the Black Saturday fires, while the other half was taken during the aftermath of the blazes, when the Premier was regularly in the limelight and is perceived to have performed well.
The poll kills off Opposition hopes that anger over Melbourne's ramshackle and failing train system, as well as Labor factional infighting, ministerial resignations and recent power blackouts might propel the conservatives upwards in the polls.
Instead, thanks in part to his performance during the fire crisis, Mr Brumby has opened up a strong lead that is likely to stimulate fresh leadership turmoil in the Liberal Party.
The poll will be celebrated in Labor ranks as the buffer provides a cushion for pushing through Mr Brumby's ambitious and divisive infrastructure agenda, which includes the north-south pipeline and the desalination plant.
It might also provide some protection against looming budget cuts amid a downturn in state revenue from property taxes that may yet see the budget fall into deficit.
Mr Baillieu is getting the kind of numbers that pose a threat to any leader, although the lack of a clear challenger may quell an outright assault on his position.
The Newspoll figures show that while Mr Brumby's satisfaction rating has climbed to 52 per cent, Mr Baillieu's has slumped to 37.
The seven-point rise in Mr Brumby's satisfaction rating takes him to a record high, dispelling doubts over his hard-nosed style, at least for the moment.
The five-point drop in Mr Baillieu's satisfaction rating takes him back to the level at which he had been polling for the past year.
On the question of preferred premier, Mr Brumby remains a runaway leader with 54 per cent choosing him, compared with just 22 per cent opting for Mr Baillieu.
Mr Brumby's lead has jumped from 22 percentage points in the November-December poll to the current 32. When former corporate high-flyer Evan Thornley resigned as he was about to get a ministerial post, just after industry minister Theo Theophanous quit the state cabinet to fight rape charges, Labor's ship appeared to be listing.
But Newspoll shows the Brumby Government sailing ahead of its rivals. And it will start the long run-up to the election year with a financially literate leader dominating the polls as the economy slowly becomes the key voting issue.
