JAPANESE climate forecasters are predicting a dry autumn, average winter and wet spring for southeast Australia. 

This month's forecast from the world-leading Japanese Frontier Research Centre for Global Change shows the Indian Ocean Dipole moving into negative territory for the first time in three years.

``Because of negative IOD, southeastern Australia would have good rain in boreal fall (the southern hemisphere's spring),'' Centre computer modeller Jing-Jia Luo said.

The Centre's April forecast was delayed due to an upgrade to its supercomputer, the Earth Simulator, which involved reconfiguring its climate models.

The team's forecast have been consistent for the past two months showing a dry autumn followed by wetter conditions later in the year.

As the IOD moves into its negative phase the Indian Ocean off the northwest coast of Western Australia warms increasing evaporation, which in turn increases the chances of moist air being dragged across the continent to south-east Australia.

However Dr Jing-Jia did warn the La Nina event delivering heavy rain to northern Australia was coming to an end.

``There is possibility of El Nino late this year,'' he said.

In May 2007, Professor Toshio Yamagata, who oversees the Centre's work, used their computer model to predict southeast Australia's 2006-07 drought would continue into 2007-08.

Unlike the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Japanese Centre's computer model puts more emphasis on the IOD effect, which the Japanese team believes has a major impact on southeast Australia.