BAD news must never be withheld from farmers.
The latest forecast from Japanese climate analysts is indeed bad, with computer simulation of spring and winter rain deficits painting the map red.
But as grain grower Geoff Nalder said, "forewarned is forearmed".
Every farmer should digest the Japanese forecast, examine the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's forecast and develop their own response.
Never again can we allow climate scientists to dictate what we should and should not tell farmers, as happened just two years ago.
In 2007, Australian climate scientists urged their Japanese counterparts not to issue a drought warning, which contradicted Australian forecasters' predictions of a wet La Nina year.
The Japanese drought warning was kept under wraps for fear it would be "upsetting" to rural communities and lead to farmer suicides.
In the end the failure to issue a warning led many grain growers to enter hedge contracts that left them facing a $1 billion debt when the season failed.
Never again should such crucial information be withheld from farmers, who need every ounce of information they can gather on climatic outlooks.
The latest Japanese forecast may be grim, but it does allow southeast Australian farmers to consider:
- How they will use their carry-over water.
- Machinery purchases.
- Fertiliser and chemical applications.
- Debt management.
- Other sources of income or, if the worst-case scenario develops, an exit strategy.
The latest Japanese and Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts also give governments time to prepare strategies for drought-stricken communities.
We have been warned. Now we have to plan.
