WIDESPREAD rain in western Victoria has heralded one of the best starts to winter-cropping programs in years.

But the state's southern, eastern and central regions continue to struggle with record low rainfall.

With only 126mm for the first half of this year, Melbourne is tracking worse than 1967 - the driest year on record.

Yet southern NSW is having a bumper season, with Hay and Griffith both doubling their average June rain.

Weather bureau climate analysis chief David Jones said Victoria was a mixed bag at the end of June.

Dr Jones said the Wimmera-Mallee had fared well with above-average rain in May-June, but areas east of Geelong remained dry.

"It is not a pretty story out there as a whole, with Victoria recording its eleventh driest May-June since 1900 with 77mm on average," Dr Jones said.

"There is a 60 per cent probability of below-average rain for Victoria over the next three months.

"The prospect of significant rain is not that great."

With computer climate models warning an El Nino may be on the way, grain growers have reacted cautiously.

Low-input crops of barley and wheat have increased, sown using conservative rates of urea.

In the northern and North East areas, the mood is mixed. Rain has made paddocks boggy, compromising spray programs.

Victorian DPI Wimmera project grains team leader Chris Sounness said the seasonal turnaround in the western districts had been a long time coming.

"I wouldn't use the word confident but people are happy and it is close to an ideal start," Mr Sounness said.

"Most farmers are saying this winter is like the ones they used to remember."

But, regular rain from now until the end of spring will dictate yields.

"The last three years have taught us one thing - it's all about spring rain," Mr Sounness said.

"If we don't get rain in late August to October, it will be a tough finish."

Statewide, the most rain was recorded last week on the eastern ranges and in the North East.