AFTER years of farmers culling ewes, the much talked-about sheep shortage has finally hit.
But is the southern cattle breeding sector heading in the same direction?
It's a big call, but results from the two-day, end-of-financial-year store cattle sales at Euroa in Victoria seemed to suggest there is no great interest in replacing female breeding stock, even though the cow kill in Victoria is at record levels.
Based on the booking sheets, the 303 cows and calves sold at Euroa last Wednesday topped at $1080 and averaged $891 a head.
This is $81 less than 12 months ago, when 309 cows and calves sold to $1200 and averaged $972 in a season that was much drier.
The result contrasts with the steer and heifer sale held on Friday, which attracted a big crowd and prices of up to 230c/kg for steers and 188c/kg for heavy heifers.
This is fully firm to dearer on the prices recorded for young cattle 12 months ago.
So the results last week can't be put down to the simple theory that there is a cash-flow problem or low confidence among farmers, because paying $500 and $600 for little weaners begs otherwise.
As agent John Thornton, of Charles Stewart at Geelong, said, in theory, there are better prospects in cows and calves.
"Everyone seems to want steers and you see them paying 200c and 210c/kg, and, going on past years, they will be selling them at 150-160c/kg (after they have been finished and sold in a spring or summer) and you wonder where the margins are," he said.
Feedback last week suggested there is a deeper problem with demand for cows and calves, which partly stems from the spate of bad seasons.
The other issue raised was the bigger workload involved with cows and calves compared to steers or dry cattle - a problem linked to why sheep also sell to a limited market.
NSW agent Mark Barton bought steers at Euroa last week, but no females, and when questioned why he said there had been a general shift away from breeding cattle in an area stretching south from Dubbo.
Mr Barton said that after being caught many times having to feed cows and calves for lengthy periods, including springs and summers, the emphasis with cattle had changed to trading rather than trying to maintain breeding herds.
"A lot of guys have got out of breeding cows and there has been a swing back to having a ewe flock as there has been better returns in sheepmeat, and then they will just buy cattle to trade when the season allows," he said.
"It's why I don't think you will see a big push for breeding cows south of Dubbo, as they are more likely to buy breeding ewes, especially as they are easier to hold in a tough season."
It tallies with comments made by North East farmer Gary Houghton, of Gowangardie, who dispersed the family's Angus herd at Euroa.
He said one reason for selling was that the tough seasons meant that it had become too dear to maintain a dryland breeding herd in the North East due to the cost of months of supplementary feeding.
"So much profitability has gone out of (cows and calves), and that was probably reflected a bit here (at Euroa in prices)," he said.
The Houghton Angus cows, with young calves and not rejoined, sold from $720 to $925.
Euroa agent Mick Curtis, Newmarket Livestock, said there was a general air of caution among farmers now when it came to cows and calves.
He said that, ultimately, it could prove costly, creating a scenario like the sheep industry where prices rise dramatically due to limited supplies of good-quality breeders.
"It will come back to bite us as I would say that breeding numbers in this area are down by up to 30 per cent, but we've got to have a good season first," Mr Curtis said.
The difference between the sheep and beef industries, however, is that unlike Merinos and first-cross ewes there is a big pool of cattle in the north, which will influence southern markets.
