THE weekend's hot, windy conditions have put many crops in jeopardy.
Temperatures in the Victorian and South Australian Mallee rose above 30C on Saturday, some 12C above the average for this time of year.
Growers are keen to see mild weather and a soft finish for crops in this sensitive stage of cereal-crop development.
Rain is needed for all crops this week, and 10-15mm is forecast for Victoria later this week.
Conditions have taken a toll on wheat and barley crops, particularly in the Riverina. Rainfall there during July and August has been below average at decile 2, and most crops have not received any rain this month.
Ironically, the early sown and bulky crops seem to be affected most by the hot windy weather. These big crops have been drawing heavily from the depleted levels of soil moisture. Some grain growers around Jerilderie and Oaklands have decided to cut crops for hay, as they are unlikely to yield well.
The price for grain paid this harvest will be affected by the weather conditions in all states and the nation's total grain production.
Many cereal crops are well advanced and out in head in South Australia.
West Australian crops are reportedly in good shape, but in need of a kind finish during grain-fill phase. Conditions are a little too wet in southern areas around Narrogin.
Queensland has had a dry few months but recent rain will give a much-needed lift to winter crops, particularly in the south.
Grain prices have fallen further this week, with old-crop wheat slipping another $5 a tonne, to $245 a tonne delivered to Melbourne stockfeed mills.
The most commonly stored grain this season has been feed barley, and prices are $2 a tonne lower, at $183 a tonne delivered to Melbourne. Prices for new-crop grains are also not looking promising for growers. Last week, APW wheat traded as low as $208 a tonne and feed barley was down to $156 a tonne delivered to Victorian port.
Traders expect that few grain growers will be attracted to these price levels and many could opt to store grain into the New Year.
The world is growing more wheat.
Production this year was higher than expected in the Ukraine, and India is expected to grow more wheat.
The US Department of Agriculture has again increased estimates of world wheat production.
Stocks at the end of June next year are now forecast to be 186.6 million tonnes, 64 million tonnes more than two years ago.
