THE next week or two will have a significant bearing on the future of Australia's wool and prime lamb sectors.
That's when Merino breeders will begin running rams with their ewes for autumn lambings.
The choice is between Merino rams, terminals or maternals, in particular the Border Leicester.
Many breeders will have decided several months ago what rams they will put to what ewes.
Many will opt to stick with a Merino-to-Merino joining - not because of wool prices but rather because sooner or later the dwindling supply of Merino sheep must lift prices.
Dedicated Merino breeders and consultants will also argue that a well-grown plain bodied sheep can deliver through the proceeds of wool, wether lambs, and surplus breeding sheep a dollar return per hectare better than any other breed or crossbred options.
They may be right, but it is surprising how breeders will react to prevailing prices.
Wool prices are struggling, prime lamb prices are holding very well for this time of year, while prices for first-cross Border Leicester-Merino ewes are on a high.
Six years ago a similar scenario triggered a rush of Border Leicester matings of cull and surplus Merino ewes.
Three years later, with a surplus of first-cross ewes and crash in prices, the trend was to join more and more Merino ewes to terminal sires - particularly the White Suffolk - to cash in on the buoyant lamb market.
So what's the likely outcome in the wake of the latest strong demand for first-cross ewes?
For a start, the Riverina, a traditional breeding ground for first-cross ewes, has experienced a halving of Merino breeding ewes in the last three years owing to the drought.
Border Leicester breeders would like to report a lift in demand but realise they can't because there are simply not enough Merino ewes to join.
With such a shortage of joinable Merino ewes it is surprising that the respective breed societies representing the Poll Dorset, White Suffolk, Border Leicester and Merino are not more vocal at the moment lobbying for their rams.
The reports from Australian Bureau of Statistics that prime lamb production for the first nine months is on track for an annual record suggest that flock rebuilding is the last thing on the minds of sheep producers, hence the scramble for prime lamb mothers.
Twelve months ago, dedicated breeders of first-cross ewes had reasons to be downcast when auction prices for future breeders were well under prime lamb rates.
That situation has now turned around, with well-grown seven-month-old first-cross ewe lambs fetching premiums of $20-$50 to what those same sheep would have made in the prime lamb market.
Meat and Livestock Australia manager of sheep and lamb research Dr Alex Ball, while no doubt lobbying for the cause of the prime lamb sector, warns that producers shouldn't go overboard with their replacement ewes.
His concern is the depreciation cost of ewes.
For a breeding ewe that cost $200 and sold five years later in the mutton market for $80, the annual depreciation cost is $24 per ewe, which must be included in working out the overall cost of producing a lamb.
In recent years $8-$10 has been the norm.
Dr Ball said lamb producers who couldn't find replacement ewes or didn't want to pay the current prices had other options.
One of Dr Ball's favourite suggestions was for prime lamb producers to breed from their own first or second-cross ewe lambs.
Dr Ball said producers should select those ewe lambs of 45kg or heavier and join them at seven months to a terminal sire.
Matings should be over 4-5 weeks.
These young ewes should be scanned and those empty should be consigned to the prime lamb market.
Dr Ball said such a strategy provided low-cost replacement ewes and by retaining only those ewes which fall pregnant, a producer puts genetic pressure on the selection of highly fertile ewes.
And while the young mated ewe lamb might not be a traditional first-cross Border Leicester-Merino, Dr Ball said producers would be surprised at how many of the terminal rams on Lambplan were beginning to exhibit strong maternal breeding values or traits normally associated with the Border Leicester.
Right record
IT IS time to set the record straight on record first cross-ewe prices.
Last week I reported that the $182 paid for the Berryman's seven-month-old ewe lambs was a Victorian record.
And while it was a Bendigo record, Keiran McGrath of McGrath Rodwell said Kyneton held the Victorian record of $188 set in January 2005 for Doug Marshall's 206 10-month-old ewe lambs from Berrigan.
The national record of $220 for ewe lambs was paid in November 2004 at Naracoorte. Just a week earlier, also at Naracoorte another record of $248 was set for 1 1/2-year-olds.
The $206 paid for Hedley Lourie's 200 15-month-old ewes last week in Bendigo is the current Victoria auction record, beating the previous high of $201 paid at Ballarat in January 2005.
