WHILE restockers have been pushing store cattle and sheep prices higher and higher in recent weeks, the prime markets are looking decidedly sluggish with key indicators falling to 12-month lows.
The store cattle market is where buyers are seeing the real disparity between prices for store cattle and those for cattle in prime markets.
Weak export demand and a continuing buoyant Australian dollar - predicted to stay above US90c for the next six months - will continue to put pressure on prime prices.
Cattle prices in the prime markets have fallen to 7 per cent below a year ago, except for cows, which are 12 per cent behind this time last year, according to Meat and Livestock Australia.
"The dollar looks like it will stay above US90c for some time, and export demand from Japan and the US will remain sluggish through to the first quarter (March) next year," MLA economist Tim McRae said.
However, an MLA report said prices are "fair", given the Australian dollar is now 46 per cent higher against the US dollar than a year ago.
Prices for cows and feeder cattle remained stable last week while trade cattle and Japan ox lost up to 2 per cent, prompting predictions of an impending seasonal low in prime prices.
The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator dipped under 300c/kg for the first time this year after shedding 5.75c/kg over the past week to close at 298.25c/kg on Monday.
This is some 27c/kg behind this time last year, with all saleyards monitored by the National Livestock Reporting Service adversely affected.
Cattle breeder Scott Elliott, from Calivil, north of Bendigo, took advantage of the strong store prices last week, selling 68 Angus and Hereford steers.
Instead of selling the prime-to-forward condition steers in the Echuca or Shepparton prime markets, he opted to cart them an extra 150km to the Ballarat monthly store sale.
"The way the export prices were going I was getting worried," Mr Elliott said in reference to rates for trade and medium-weight steers, which had fallen under $1.50/kg for his 380-500kg cattle.
At Ballarat, his heaviest Angus at 507kg sold for $800, or $1.58c/kg. His next pen at 468kg sold for $745, or $1.54/kg.
Overall, Mr Elliot estimated he was $50-$60 better off at Ballarat than selling through the prime market.
Ross McRobert, of Elders Korumburra, said there were expectations the export market would pick up next year because of the shortage of cattle.
"I know people run around the sales with calculators, but what is more important is the dollars per head and the weight these cattle will put on," Mr McRobert said.
