THE year gets under way with the world's agriculture markets showing some mixed situations.
In some cases (sugar, beef, some dairy commodities) acute shortages are continuing, yet in others (grains, wine) we find the world in a glut.
Despite the fact the world has experienced strong volatility, and will continue to do so, the big players' trade policies remain very important.
Part of the puzzle as to where trade policies may head this year is what the European Union will do.
A couple of big changes occurred in the EU late last year.
Members agreed on a treaty to change key decision-making powers in the union, and there is new leadership of the farm portfolio in the European Commission itself.
The EU had long been tagged as recalcitrant when it comes to trade policy.
Protection and preservation of a social policy to preserve farm livelihoods has long been a strong feature of its policy and central budgeting.
But that has unravelled since the EU expanded to 27 members.
Late last year the European Commission farewelled the reformist leader of its farm policy, Mariann Fischer Boel, who challenged the pillars of the EU's Common Agriculture Policy.
Dr Fischer Boel oversaw a watering down of subsidies for farmers, putting sunsets on export subsidies and massive distortions caused by production quotas.
She was prepared to address the unsustainable cost of the farm support measures in the CAP, as greater needs of the EU's developing countries beckoned.
The arm-wrestle between Dr Fischer Boel and politicians erupted as farmers felt the pain of the financial crisis. Politicians sought to overturn her reforms, but had to settle for throwing a bit of cash at the issue, which will prove useless.
Dr Fischer Boel quit her post last year after staring down threats to her agenda.
She has been replaced by a French-educated Romanian, Dacian Ciolos.
He gave first indications of his agenda when speaking in a hearing in front of politicians in Brussels.
He stuck to the safe ground that is topical in EU farm politics at present, wanting "to improve the negotiating position" of producers when dealing with retailers.
Mr Ciolos says he is a reformer but is thought to be more moderate than his predecessor.
He says reform doesn't mean reducing financial support for the CAP but "changing the budget to meet new challenges".
Maybe the settings for his role will be moderated anyway as a result of last year's Lisbon Treaty.
It gives more decision-making powers to EU members on things such as collective EU farm and trade policies.
The sway of the bigger players with farmers who are highly exposed to the volatility of the world may put greater restraint into future EU policies.
Just what this means for any future progress in steering the EU away from protectionism towards fairer trade is unclear.
