GRAIN prices continue to draw some strength from the lack of grain reaching the market in southeast Australia.
Growers have been hunting higher prices and continue to hold their stock in warehouses and on farm.
Accordingly, prices for general-purpose stockfeed wheat are up $6 a tonne this week to $207 a tonne delivered to Melbourne.
Despite this, many buyers are in no rush.
They see large quantities of grain in storage at prices over those that are internationally competitive.
Buyers believe growers will need to sell soon as cash flow will be important next month.
Our tables this week report changes to grain pools.
All prices for wheat and barley pools are lower with wheat pools down $5 a tonne and barley down $3 a tonne across all grades.
Pool operators are reflecting the lower price environment. In fact, the benchmark futures prices for wheat in the US have eased 20 per cent over the past three weeks. US wheat prices are facing pressure from high stock levels and a lack of export demand.
While some key markets for US wheat continue to buy, other large importers in the Middle East and North Africa are now buying European and Russian wheat $US25-$30 a tonne cheaper.
Analysts have been watching with interest statements made recently by US President Barack Obama. He has been keen to reform the trading operations of banks following a sustained period of investment in commodities.
If the US banks' involvement in commodities such as wheat is brought into question, further selling pressure could weigh on an already heavy wheat market. Traders expect large South American wheat crops to keep a lid on price rises for US wheat.
While US prices provide a strong indicator for Australian grain prices, local rates have not fallen as much.
The ASX wheat futures market in NSW, representing the wheat market for eastern Australia, has eased just 6 per cent in the past three weeks.
Australian prices are being supported by exporters factoring in an Aussie dollar below US88c.
There is speculation that this rate may not last given the talk of further interest rate rises in Australia.
For grains destined for export markets, the general price trend is lower this week. Wheat prices delivered to Victorian ports are down $2-$6 a tonne; however malting-barley prices are $9 a tonne higher at $207 a tonne delivered to Geelong.
