THE lamb industry is something that everyone wants to be a part of right now.
But crunching the numbers can be scary, especially if you are not currently part of it.
As Rodwells Bendigo agent Mick Crapper said recently, trying to get into the action will involve a costly outlay, which will hurt even more if you don't have something to sell.
"The cost of trying to restock a property from scratch now, well, the cost of it would be huge," he said.
He's right.
Trying to buy in first-cross ewes, at $140-$150 plus, and then waiting for close enough to 10 months for a return on the lamb, has most looking at a six-figure outlay for a decent mob, and with a long lead time on the returns.
Even Merino ewes, scanned in lamb to terminal sires, are regularly making more than $100 and the best more than $150.
So it was interesting to see what happened at last week's feature first-cross offering in the Riverina.
The Barellan first-cross ewe sale averaged $145, up $35 a head on last year.
It's hardly surprising, but what was interesting was what made the top money.
It was a pen of four-year-old first-cross ewes, all of which were scanned in lamb to Poll Dorset rams, which sold for $173.
Selling agent Mark Flagg, from Mark Flagg Property and Livestock, said it was likely many of the ewes were carrying twins.
The ewes were due to lamb in April, so the offspring would be targeted for the early sucker market.
If the mob of about 300 produced even 400 lambs, at say $80 each, that's a return of $32,000 on the $51,900 the buyer spent at the sale.
So by this spring, those ewes will owe the buyer about $66 each.
The figures, of course, look even better if the lambs make more, or the lambing percentage is higher.
Compare this to the sale's next best price of $170 for rising one-year-old ewes.
These future breeders were definitely joinable, and if the rams went out immediately, they should produce a lamb by July.
Those lambs will come onto the market in late spring, early summer, or quite a few months later than those from the ewes sold scanned in lamb.
How people assess this was reflected in pre-sale inquiry, Mr Flagg said.
He said there were more phone calls about two pens of in-lamb ewes than for the bulk of the well-bred yarding of young breeders.
Perhaps people who want a piece of the lamb industry want their chop right now, and scanned-in-lamb ewes can offer this.
And doing the sums means a pen that looks dear on the day might well be the cheapest in the long run.





