THE worst of beef prices are behind us, Meat and Livestock Australia says.
MLA released its beef industry projections for this year and beyond in Sydney last week.
According to MLA economist, Tim McRae, the outlook for this year was "cautiously optimistic".
"We expect a modest to small improvement in cattle prices for 2010," he said.
Domestically, the national cattle herd will remain at 27 million head, before slowly rebuilding to 28 million by 2014.
However, while cattle numbers remain stagnant, slaughter numbers will decrease 4.5 per cent to 7.4 million head, the lowest in 14 years, due to the smaller herd, the run of poor seasons and female retention.
"Overall, I would expect a sharp decline in female turn-off," Mr McRae said.
Cattle, on average, will be 0.8 per cent heavier this year, with average adult carcass weights expected to increase to 272.5kg/head.
With Australia's cattle industry reliant on exports, the recovery of economies in the US, Japan and Korea and demand for our beef is vital.
The fluctuating Australian dollar has also played havoc with exports, however it is forecast to remain around US90c, despite concerns last year it would reach parity with the US dollar this year.
MLA expects beef exports to fall 5.7 per cent this year, to 875,000 tonnes shipped weight, with beef exports to Japan forecast to fall 7 per cent, to 330,000 tonnes, and exports to Korea likely to slip 18 per cent to 95,000 tonnes.
This is mostly due to increased competition from the US in Japan and Korea, aided by the weaker US dollar.
"The low point in export and cattle prices in the current downturn is likely to be behind us now," Mr McRae said.
Indonesia will continue to import plenty of boxed beef as well as live cattle, improving on last year's record-breaking figures. Live exports for this year are forecast to fall 4 per cent to 990,000 head.
