THE value of Australian farm commodity exports is expected to fall 7.7 per cent this financial year.
And according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Research Economics report Australian Commodities, released yesterday, exports will fall a further 1.3 per cent next financial year.
"Forecast lower world indicator prices in 2010-11 for wheat, coarse grains and sugar are expected to be largely offset by expected higher prices for oilseeds, cotton, wool and dairy products," the report said.
The world wheat indicator price is forecast to drop 23 per cent in 2009-10 and another 6 per cent in 2010-11 to $US196 a tonne as large global supplies place downward pressure on prices.
"World prices for most dairy products are forecast to rise, driven by increased demand for dairy products in developed and major dairy importing developing countries," the report said.
Australian wine-grape prices would remain low in the medium term and a fall in production would lead to an improvement in prices around 2014-15, the report said.
Extra competition in Australia's key beef export markets - Japan and Korea - was expected to lower the price of beef and veal from 296c/kg in 2008-09 to 292c/kg next financial year.
The report said a gradual recovery in wool prices would see a rebuilding of the sheep flock in about 2014-15.
Lamb prices would remain "relatively high in real terms", increasing 3 per cent in 2010-11 to 450c/kg.
The saleyard price of pigs was predicted to decline from 317c/kg in 2010-11 to 297c/kg in 2014-15 as imports increased.
The poultry industry is expected to grow 13 per cent by 2014-15.
