CONSUMERS as well as farmers will have to adapt to the effects of climate change on horticulture and viticulture, according to a leading research scientist.
University of Melbourne and CSIRO research scientist, Dr Leanne Webb, said adaptation would have to be a two-stage process.
The first step would involve farmers changing to new varieties or moving their enterprises to new locations.
The second step would require consumers to adjust to changes in the price, availability and appearance of some produce.
Dr Webb said these changes might include shorter or earlier seasons, lower yields, smaller fruit and vegetables because of shorter growing seasons and changes to skin colour, such as the natural greening that occurs when oranges are exposed to higher temperatures.
Decreasing frost risk in northern regions could lead to an expansion of the area suitable for tropical fruits, such as mangoes, lychees and bananas, while the area of orchards growing fruits such as berries, apples and stonefruit, which require cooler temperatures, might contract.
"Until now, farmers have been satisfying the consumer's demand for high-quality produce," Dr Webb said.
"In the short-term this can be maintained through farmers implementing adaptation measures, exploiting varietal or geographical niches for instance.
"But that might be at an increased cost, which will end up being passed on to consumers because farmers are on pretty tight margins.
"In the longer term, with increasing climatic challenges such as warmer temperatures and a lot more pressure on water supply in the south, consumers will also be required to adapt more to altered availability."
Dr Webb said it was important for peak bodies in horticulture to educate consumers about the changes, which might be purely aesthetic, or, in the case of wine, result from the use of new wine-grape varieties and the production of new styles of wine.
A former viticulturist, Dr Webb co-wrote the chapters on horticulture and viticulture in a new 296-page book, Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change: Preparing Australian Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the Future, launched by the CSIRO last week.
Dr Webb said it was difficult to speak in general terms about the impact of climate change on horticulture, because it included so many different classes of crops.
"There will be winners and losers," she said.
Dr Webb said some farmers had already begun to adjust by buying or leasing land in another area with a different climate, or a more secure water supply, to enable them to continue to produce crops, grow different crops or produce crops out of season.
