AUSTRALIAN wheat growers face a bleak couple of years, with prices expected to remain stagnant for the next three years.

According to ABARE's report to the Outlook Conference in Canberra last week, wheat net pool returns in major companies will bottom at $235 a tonne for the benchmark Australian Premium White grade this season.

The ABARE report says prices will rise $5 a tonne for each of the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons, but fall in real terms compared with 2009-10 dollars.

ABARE executive director Phillip Glyde said an expected increase in world wheat supplies was likely to continue placing downward pressure on prices in the short term.

The bureau's report has forecast global ending stocks to remain a millstone around the grain industry's neck until 2013-14.

World wheat consumption is expected to overtake production in 2012-13, but only marginally so at 671 million tonnes, compared with a forecast crop of 670 million tonnes.

ABARE said world wheat production was expected to fall to 656 million tonnes this season after big crops of 687 million tonnes and 668 million tonnes.

"In the United States, the total area seeded for the 2010-11 winter wheat crop is reportedly down 14 per cent on 2009-10, with area planted to spring and winter wheat forecast to fall by 2.5 million hectares to 18 million hectares," it said.

"A key factor contributing to reduced plantings was the slow 2009 corn and soyabean harvest, which considerably delayed and reduced winter wheat plantings in some states."

The bureau said exports from the US during 2009-10 were the lowest in 30 years.

"US exporters have been struggling, with producers in the Black Sea region benefiting from freight and logistics advantages, particularly to the Middle East," it said.

Cheaper, lower-quality wheat from Russia and Ukraine have taken a large share of world trade in the past two years.

Russian wheat production in 2009-10 was the second highest on record at 62 million tonnes, compared with a 37 million-tonne average during the 1990s.

The Ukrainian crop averaged 23 million tonnes for each of the past two seasons, compared with a 15-million tonne average for the 10 years to 2008-09.

Russia and Ukraine now account for 22 per cent of world wheat trade and 47 per cent of global barley exports.

ABARE said world barley production was expected to fall in 2010-11.