SURPRISINGLY, sheep and lamb slaughter numbers have dropped by up to a quarter in the first month of this year.
As prices continue to hover around 500c/kg for lamb and 345c/kg for mutton, and lamb processors drop kill days - or in the case of Castricum Bros at Dandenong, months - data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows a sharp decline in slaughter numbers.
According to the data released this month, national January lamb slaughterings fell 11 per cent on the corresponding month last year, to 1.6 million head, while sheep slaughterings fell 23 per cent to 716,000 head.
Unseasonal and widespread summer rain may account for the decline in sheep and lamb numbers destined for the abattoir.
Meat and Livestock Australia sheepmeat analyst, Kara Tighe, said the fall in lamb numbers was surprising.
"The fall in January lamb numbers was not expected, however the fall in sheep slaughtered was expected," Ms Tighe said.
February rain across much of eastern Australia has meant producers are retaining lambs and feeding them, with heavier lambs hitting the market.
"We expect February data to be tighter again (for lambs), but we might see a recovery this month largely due to the rain and producers retaining ewe lambs for joining, as they have the feed."
Sheepmeat Council of Australia president Kate Joseph said the recent rain would translate to more feed and greater ewe fertility and lambing percentages.
"But it is still going to be a tough autumn and winter (in terms of rebuilding numbers), which is a flow-on from last year," Ms Joseph said.
However, Ms Tighe said MLA tipped a 1.4 per cent increase in lamb slaughterings this year as well as a 0.6 per cent increase in lamb carcass weight.
MLA has forecast about 21.2 million lambs to be slaughtered this year, but this number may be questioned if producers retain ewe lambs for joining.
"If we have a good autumn, we may see slaughter numbers drop," Ms Tighe said. "Potentially more ewe lambs will be joined (rather than killed)."
She said falling slaughter numbers should be good for rebuilding sheep flocks.
