"I RECKON it's going to be 1983 all over again, great, general early-autumn rain".

Since my mate Ted retired, he has a lot of time on his hands and spends a great deal of it telling me what he thinks.

"And another thing. It's a great opportunity for Harry to back off the cropping a bit and increase his livestock numbers," he said.

Ted's son, Harry, has been making all the management decisions on the farm without Ted's input for years but Ted still has strong opinions.

"I wouldn't be spraying all that feed, I'd be eating it," he said.

Whether or not Harry agrees with Ted, there has been a tendency in the past few years to think about what is best for cropping and treat stock as an also-ran enterprise.

If that is the mindset, the immediate thing to do is to start to spray the weeds that are already growing. The alternative is to get sheep to eat them.

It's hard to know if Ted is correct in his assessment that we have received the break.

There is a long time between now and winter and this rain seems to be the tail-end of the northern rain rather than the usual west-to-east rain, which was once a regular feature of southern Australia's weather.

But Ted's opinion that it may be better to eat the weeds than spray them is worthy of consideration.

Allowing weeds to grow and then grazing them may have an effect on future crops.

There may be a reduction in yield because of compaction, and if the rain stops, the moisture used by the weeds would have been useful for the crop.

Although livestock in general and sheep in particular have been out of favour with many people who run mixed enterprises, stock can play an important part in ensuring long-term viability.

As long as costs are controlled, stock can reduce the impact of crop failure simply by reducing the area under crop and thereby reducing the risk.

Wheat is the linchpin of grain prices in Australia, and world wheat production was at record levels in both 2008 and last year.

High levels of production have placed downward pressure on prices and it is hard to envisage the circumstances that will lift wheat prices this year.

There is plenty of downside in the sheep market so it isn't sensible to suddenly jump out of crop and into sheep.

A shed full of machinery needs to be worked and under-use can be costly.

So what would I recommend to Harry? The early rain may provide an opportunity to start to change the balance and gently swing back towards more livestock.

Weeds can be eaten instead of being sprayed.

There may be some yield reduction as a result of compaction but with less reliance on crop there will be less risk.

  • Agricultural consultant Mike Stephens joins The Weekly Times this week in a weekly column on issues in agriculture, viewed through the eyes of fictitious characters. Mike is a consultant with Mike Stephens and Associates.