AS A hay producer and merchant recently said, hay does well in extremes.
Hay demand is often determined by the severity of drought or the bleakness of cold, wet winters.
Some may say hay sellers take advantage of others' misfortunes, but a tradeable hay supply has been shown to be invaluable over the years.
This season, we have not seen either of these extreme scenarios and hay demand has been minimal. The big unanswered question on farmers' minds is the possibility of locust damage this spring.
The unusual autumn swarms of locusts have caught Mallee farmers by surprise.
Livestock producers in the Mallee have been able to continue to feed stock without importing hay from other areas and there has been no impact on the overall hay market.
If farmers and authorities are unable to control the locust hatchings and swarms this spring, we could be looking at a locust-led recovery in hay prices.
Hay demand is low but the demand that is emerging in the southwest is for cheap low-quality hay for feeding to dry cows.
The cheapest hay on the market to fill this need is the weather-damaged cereal hay from the Wimmera, which continues to trade at about $80 a tonne ex farm or $115 a tonne delivered from southwest Victoria.
Higher quality cereal and vetch hay is proving popular with buyers in the Goulburn Valley at $140 a tonne ex Wimmera farm.
This hay has been shedded, is without rain damage and has been testing about 10 units of energy and 14 per cent protein.
On dairy farms around Cobden and Terang, there are some dairy farmers who expect they will see this season through without opening their silage pits. Other dairy farmers are less fortunate and their supply of round baled silage is getting low as they have been steadily feeding it to their milking cows.
A drive past farms in Gippsland illustrates how productive pastures have been. Many rows of round baled silage still lie alongside fences.
When winter rain comes, farmers will be able to access these bales with tractors. It could be much more difficult for hay producers who have paddock stacks of large square bales on their Wimmera farms.
These paddocks already have reasonable sub-soil moisture and, with more rain, will soon become inaccessible to weighty drop-deck hay trucks.
Without action soon, this hay may be carried over until next season.
