THERE are some interesting figures for farmers to contemplate when it comes to lamb this winter and the appeal of forward contract prices of up to 520 cents a kilogram carcass weight.
While the industry is riding high on the record low flock numbers, there is some evidence the supply of slaughter lambs in coming weeks could be healthier than at the same time last year.
It stems from figures recently analysed by the National Livestock Reporting Service that show just how active restockers and feeders have been in the market since summer.
According to the NLRS, the number of lambs sold at the weekly markets it monitors (such as Bendigo, Ballarat, Wagga Wagga in NSW and Hamilton) has jumped 23 per cent in the January to April period, compared with the same four months last year.
Much of the increased activity has been in Victoria, market analysts with Meat and Livestock Australia claim.
Victorian feeder lamb supplies have lifted the most of any state this year, with feeder lamb (sales) doubling compared with the same time last year, MLA reported.
The lift in numbers can be attributed to the strong price outlook for finished lambs, while the feed grain surplus from harvest has eased input feeding costs.
Of all the lambs sold to feed-on since January, 38 per cent had an estimated carcass weight of more than 18kg, which is another factor that needs to be taken into consideration when debating forward contract deals.
As the NLRS noted, the fact that restockers were competing with meat buyers for lambs certainly helped push prices along in recent months.
However, this clash of restocker/meat buyer bidding will fade as lamb age and teeth concerns, plus the cold weather, affect demand for store lambs. And with so many heavy lambs being put on feed, it could indicate that the best money in coming months could continue to be for lighter weighted trade and supermarket style lambs.
The trend towards heavier lambs, due to better feed conditions, shows up in a breakdown of supply figures for the first four months of this year.
The number of heavy lambs sold at NLRS-monitored markets with a carcass weight of more than 22kg, jumped to 32 per cent between January and April compared to 24 per cent last year, while the supply of trade lambs increased just 4 per cent to 44 per cent.
The other significant change was the fewer light lambs being sold, with the supply of these falling to just 24 per cent this year, compared to 36 per cent in the early months of last year.
Add the fact that farmers appear to be holding on to more light lambs, and the extra numbers that have been bought to feed-on, and there is an argument that lamb supplies could be more abundant this year.
The unknown factor is how many lambs have been booked on forward contracts, as this could determine how active major buying companies such as Swift Australia - which last month advertised forward prices of up to 520c/kg for a July delivery - could be in the physical market.
For the record, the best week for export lambs sold at saleyards last year was in early June when the national indicator averaged 523c/kg dressed.
