AUSTRALIA is expected to produce a 22.1 million tonne wheat crop this season, according to a new federal forecast.
In its first Crop Report for the new season, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said good late summer rainfall and widespread above average autumn rain had produced a strong start to the 2010-11 season.
The area sown to wheat was estimated at 13.5 million hectares, about 280,000ha less than last season’s crop, ABARE said.
The 2010-11 wheat crop forecast was about 480,000 tonnes more than last season’s crop, it said.
ABARE's crop forecasts show the nation’s grain growers had switched away from wheat and barley in favour of canola, lupins, chickpeas and lentils.
Canola plantings had increased from last year’s area of 1.4 million ha to 1.6 million ha, but lower yield expectations had ABARE forecasting a crop of 1.96 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 1.91 million tonnes produced last season.
The nation’s barley crop is tipped to be 7.3 million tonnes, much lower than the 8.1 million tonnes estimated to have been grown last season.
Victoria is tipped to produce a 2.5 million tonne wheat crop, well below the 3.2 million tonnes grown last season.
The NSW wheat crop for this season is forecast at 6.6 million tonnes, a big increase from the 5.1 million tonnes produced last season.
Barley production in NSW was also expected to be higher this year at 1.6 million tonnes, while in Victoria, it was tipped to be a 430,000-tonne smaller crop at 1.5 million tonnes.
ABARE said a drier than average winter was expected in southern NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
The Bureau of Meteorology outlook for June to August has cropping regions in northern NSW and Queensland expecting a 50:50 chance of receiving the historical average rain for this period.
ABARE said it had not factored into its grain production forecast any potential effect of Australian plague locusts.
Growers are bracing themselves for a massive plague when locust eggs hatch in spring.
“Locusts can have adverse effects on winter crop yields and production,” ABARE said.
“Crops can suffer from defoliation, stem-snapping and damage at head emergence and flowering stages.
“Locusts chew through the stems of wheat plants and, when the headers move through the crop at harvest, the heads fall to the ground and are not collected.”
