THE rise of Labor is linked to their support in regional Victoria and it will be regional Victoria that decides if they stay, writes NICK ECONOMOU

In 1982, the Labor Party won its first Victorian election since 1952.

In securing a majority in the Legislative Assembly, Labor won a host of former Liberal seats in the eastern and southeastern suburbs of Melbourne, including usually safe Liberal heartland seats Sandringham and Warrandyte.

In regional Victoria, however, the transfer of seats was much less, three, in fact, leaving Labor with 6 regional MPs (or 12 per cent) of a total representation of 49 in the Legislative Assembly.

The Cain-Kirner Labor party was thrashed in the 1992 election and again in 1996 by a Liberal-National coalition led by Jeff Kennett.

At its nadir in 1992, Labor held only two regional seats, including the usually safe seat of Lara, and the La Trobe Valley seat of Morwell. In 1996, Labor won a third regional seat when it picked up Bendigo West.

It was something of a lone triumph for the then Labor opposition leader, John Brumby, who had been credited with formulating a strategy of trying to advance his party's presence in regional Victoria.

The significance of the Bendigo West result would be apparent in the 1999 state election that saw the Kennett government lose its majority in the Assembly and a minority Labor government subsequently formed with the support of three rural-based independents.

At the time, commentators focused on the collapse of support for the National party in East Gippsland and Mildura.

What was no less significant was the collapse of support for the Liberals in the regional cities of Bendigo and Ballarat and in those areas of the state abutting the growth corridors of the regional cities and of northern and western Melbourne.

In 1999, Labor won six former Liberal seats covering the regional cities and rural areas beyond the suburban fringe.

In the 2002 election, another four regional and peri-urban seats were won by Labor, taking the number of regional ALP MPs in the Assembly to 14, or 26 per cent of the Labor representation in the lower house.

In the meantime, the six seats won the election before recorded significant swings to become much safer for the ALP.

Of the 14 seats Labor holds that could be classified as regional or peri-urban, only three - Ripon (on 4.3 per cent), South Barwon (2.3 per cent) and Gembrook (0.2 per cent) - are ultra-marginal.

The average swing the Liberals would have to achieve to win back the 11 regional seats they once held, but are now held by Labor, is 6.1 per cent.

What this shows is the extent to which regional Victoria has buttressed the rise and consolidation of Labor  in Victoria since 1999.

Interestingly, this consolidation has occurred exclusively in the sate's west and north.

At the same time Labor was winning and consolidating in seats around Bendigo, Ballarat and Geelong, it lost its representation in the previously solid La Trobe Valley heartland when, in 2006, it lost Morwell to the National party and Narracan to the Liberals. The significance of the Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo regions to  Labor has been reflected in  policy debate.

The Bracks and Brumby governments have been assiduous in attending to the needs of these areas especially with regards to infrastructure and water.

The Brumby government's problems with things like late running suburban trains and Myki mean nothing to regional Victoria, where VLocity trains ply the rails and Myki has been in operation for some time!

Swings against the Labor government occurred in a number of the seats in the 2006 election and may well occur at the next election too. The question will be whether the swings will be enough to allow the Liberals to reclaim some or all of the electoral territory it once held.

To form government, Mr Baillieu and the Liberal party must win back Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong.

To do this, the Liberal party will have to achieve swings in excess of 6 per cent - a very big ask. In the 2010 election, then, the fate of the Brumby government is actually in the hands of regional Victoria.