THERE is a sense that we are at a turning point in the market for hay and silage.
The recent hay-marketing season has illustrated what happens when the domestic market is well catered for with ample on-farm fodder and pastures.
Livestock producers have been able to feed stock with their well-managed paddocks of pasture as well their own on-farm hay and silage.
Through the 2009-10 season, hay merchants and producers have found selling hay challenging.
Those with long-time clients have been able to maintain some flow of hay and have found new demand for hay in the past week. But hay prices are changing little at present.
The price for mid-range cereal hay is steady at $130 a tonne delivered to farms in southwest Victoria and the Goulburn Valley.
South Gippsland continues to remain wet and buyers need to pay as much as $170 a tonne delivered for the same quality cereal hay.
Some higher-quality vetch hay is finding new, but limited, interest.
Despite some sellers asking for more than $200 a tonne ex farm in the Mallee, a small trade of vetch continues at $220 a tonne delivered to southwest and central Victoria.
Hay and silage contractors and producers are eagerly considering new-crop hay and how the weather and grain prices may influence supply and demand. Those grain growers who also produce hay are fortunate with much higher grain prices this year. One view is that these farmers will achieve sufficient cash flow soon after harvest without the need to sell hay.
Producers are speculating that this could restrict hay supply and prices may be firm during summer.
Furthermore, Gippsland dairy and beef producers are expecting a reduction in the volume of silage this season.
This is despite their intention to cut normal silage.
Many Gippsland paddocks that were shut up early for silage production remain sodden.
In the past few years, silage has been cut in late September and some have even found the same paddocks cut hay several months later. This is unlikely to happen this year.
By the time these paddocks dry out sufficiently to handle machinery, the ideal time for conserving silage may have passed.
Paddocks may still cut hay later in October and, failing this, rank standing feed could be available for grazing in summer.
While conditions are wet at present and farmers are confident of a favourable spring, further rain in October is still needed to secure full spring production for paddocks in Victoria's Western District.
