HARRY McNabb is a man in a quandary.

Recent rain will ensure that the spring continues and feed will be abundant.

The property has been lightly stocked because of the tough seasons in recent years but he needs more stock to control the spring growth.

If the spring growth isn't controlled, carry-over dry feed will inhibit clover growth in the autumn and the pastures will commence a downward spiral and grow inferior feed.

In addition to the issues around future feed quality, he is under pressure from his father, Ted, to increase profitability.

The McNabbs have already decided to reduce the area under crop so when stubbles become available the livestock shortage on the farm will become more critical.

Harry also has to contend with sledging from his older brother, Norm, who reckons he could do a better job of managing the farm.

With the spring sheep sales now in full swing, Harry has to decide whether or not to restock.

When the issue was last discussed in this column, it seemed that Harry was more inclined to take a photo of the feed than to buy more stock. That comment brought an avalanche of criticism from Norm and his mates.

Harry phoned his sister, Jill, to again work through the issues.

Her advice went something like this:

"If the money is sitting ready to invest, and you can afford to lose some of it, then buying sheep at today's prices won't break you.

"But they may not make you any money.

"If sheep prices hold, you should make money and if they fall you are in a position to withstand the loss.

"But because you have to borrow the money to buy the stock, consider what will happen if they fall sharply in value. Can you with stand that loss?"

That question prompts another question - if you need, say 350 ewes to get to the optimum stocking capacity, what is that number as a percentage of the flock?

In this case you need to buy only 10 per cent of the flock so you can probably withstand a substantial loss in value.

The advice from Jill went further and she pointed out that Harry has options, which include the following:

Buy ewes, which is risky; buy cattle, which is also risky (and re-stockers will be competing with butchers and feedlots); conserve more fodder; sell fodder as a standing crop; or find agistment stock.

Harry wants to reduce the risk associated with cropping.

Cropping may be an option if he can find a sharefarmer.

He is also concerned about the consequence of that carry-over dry feed.

The old adage 'there is no money in spring feed' is pretty near the mark.

It will be tempting to buy stock if prices ease.

Therein lays Harry's dilemma.

He can also decide to stand out of the market and be happy, which is also a good decision.

In five years he will know if his choice was the right one.