GRAIN growers have been relishing the rain right through the growing season.
With high-yielding crops, all they wanted in recent weeks was for "the tap to be turned off" just before harvest began.
But it didn't.
And now growers face the prospect of an abundance of weather-damaged grain destroying their income.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics estimated the Victorian, NSW and Queensland winter crop at about 23 million tonnes when it released its September report.
Barley and wheat production alone accounted for about 19.5 million tonnes across the three states, with 14.1 million tonnes in NSW and Queensland alone.
Receival figures released by GrainCorp this week showed four million tonnes had been delivered to its NSW and Queensland storages and another 530,000 tonnes in Victoria.
While this week's ABARE crop report will undoubtedly show different figures, based on September estimates and allowing for grain stored on farm and with other bulk handlers, rough estimates suggest there could be as much as eight to 10 million tonnes of wheat and barley crops still waiting to be harvested in paddocks in NSW and Queensland.
Almost four million tonnes of wheat and barley has yet to be harvested in Victoria.
While there is substantial weather damage in NSW and Queensland, how Victorian crops fare will largely be determined by this week's rain.
But there could easily be 12-14 million tonnes of cereals on the eastern seaboard exposed to the weather.
In a worse-case scenario, the rain may have cost grain growers in the three states between $1 billion and $2 billion in lost revenue as milling quality wheat or malting barley is dumped into feed and general purpose categories, but also through inevitable lower grain test weights.
Growers don't want to suffer the extra problem of a flood of weather-damaged grain on to the market sending prices into a freefall.
A poll by The Weekly Times in the past week has shown 86 per cent of respondents want the Federal Government to underwrite a national feed wheat pool.
Getting value for what's left from the rain now becomes a priority.
There is no doubt feed grain users are in the box seat.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia's commodity research arm said the likely large supply of weather-damaged cereals on the east coast had resulted in a downturn in feed and general purpose wheat prices.
"This large supply of east coast feed grains is helping insulate the local feed industry from rising international grain prices, which has reapplied some pressure to the international livestock industry," the bank said in a timely report on the global stockfeed industry.
Grain growers are now starting to figure out whether domestic and international feed markets can absorb the extra tonnage of feed grain - whatever level that may be.
A recent report by the Stock Feed Manufacturers Council of Australia said the livestock industry was expecting to use about 8.9 million tonnes of grain in 2010-11.
On the international front, CBA said the US Department of Agriculture expected more than 774 million tonnes of grain will be used for livestock feeding during 2010-11.
CBA said China had been a key in the growth of the global livestock market in recent decades.
The bank said China accounted for half the world's meat consumption growth from 1980 to 2003, although it was expected to slow in coming years.
Still, its annual meat consumption was 54kg per capita, well above the world average of 40kg per capita.
CBA said pork was now the most widely consumed meat globally with 38 per cent market share, followed by poultry with 31 per cent, beef on 24 per cent and lamb and goat making up 5 per cent.
Pig numbers had decreased rapidly during 2007 and 2008 in response to the global financial crisis but were now rising.
World cattle numbers were also rising but slowly, while poultry production was the real success story, continuing on a steady growth rate of 3.3 per cent this year and expected to top 76 million tonnes next year.
Pigs and poultry were more likely to be fed manufactured stockfeeds, while the cattle industry preferred whole or rolled grains.
An AWB Limited spokesman said last week Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines had a collective demand for four to five million tonnes of feed grain.
Most of that was normally sourced as Black Sea wheat, but US corn also filled some of the market.
With Russia and the Ukraine closing off grain exports and US corn supplies were tight due to a burgeoning ethanol market, there was an opportunity for Australia to supply some grain for that market.
AWB also said there was talk of China looking for up to two million tonnes of feed grain.
Australian grain growers are hoping there is enough demand to keep wheat and barley prices high enough to pay the bills.
