EASTERN Australia's winter crop harvest will be 2.5 million tonnes lower than December projections.
That's the tip from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.
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ABARES deputy executive director Paul Morris said widespread rain and flooding had seen expectations slide.
"That (2.5 million tonnes) would be worth about $600 million or $700 million in reduced value compared to what we were saying in December," he said.
Australia's winter crop is projected at 42 million tonnes, 19 per cent up on last year and the biggest crop since 2003-04.
The projections for NSW have been cut by 1.8 million tonnes since December but the state will still harvest 10 million tonnes of wheat - a record.
Victoria's winter crop was downgraded from 26.8 million tonnes in December to 26.3 million tonnes.
Mr Morris said heavy rain had fallen in November and December as ABARES was preparing to release its December estimates.
"We found that rainfall had a dramatic impact on quality, but we were still expecting a high crop," Mr Morris said.
"Since then, continued flooding and heavy rains have knocked around volumes and pulled down the wheat number."
These big losses were offset by upgrades of West Australian crops since December estimates.
But West Australian production fell to 7.4 million tonnes from nine million last year.
Summer crop production for 2010-11 is expected to be up 66 per cent on the previous year to 4.8 million tonnes.
Cotton production is forecast to reach a record 839,000 million tonnes while rice production is expected to increase to 802,000 tonnes.
Meanwhile US farmers have reacted to high grain prices by planting the biggest crop in 13 years, with a US Department of Agriculture report estimating an increase of 4.05 million ha from last season.