PAULINE Hanson appears doomed to another electoral failure as she competes for a New South Wales Upper House.She is likely to be rejected in her her seventh election loss since 1998, along with a multitude of independents and the No Parking Meters Party, news.com.au is reporting.
Ms Hanson, who has not won a seat in a parliament since 1996, will need preferences from the major parties to win an Upper House slot with its eight-year term.
But Labor and the Liberals have said they will not direct preferences to Ms Hanson, 56, who will be running in a group of 16 unnamed candidates.
Voting in NSW is optional preferential, and it is likely Ms Hanson will be starved of the second votes she would need for election.
She also would have to take right-wing votes from the conservative Shooters' and Fishers' Party. A predecessor, the Shooters' Party, defeated her when she first tried to enter NSW state politics in 2003.
The Shooters' and Fishers' Party, however, is highly organised with extended community ties through gun clubs and sporting bodies, while Ms Hanson appears to have no organisation.
NSW sources today discounted her chances in what will be her seventh attempt to enter a Parliament since she failed to get re-elected to Federal Parliament in 1998.
She has previously tried for the Senate in 2001, 2004 and 2007, and for a Queensland state seat in 2008, and the NSW state bid in 2003.
But for all this talk of Hanson’s return to politics, odds suggest it is unlikely to happen.
Bookmaker Tom Waterhouse has framed a market around the likelihood of Hanson being elected to the Upper House.
Waterhouse is offering odds of $3 for Hanson to be elected, meaning for a $10 bet you would triple your money to $30.
However the odds of $1.33 for Hanson to fail mean bookies don’t like her chances.
But if you think Hanson’s chances are slim spare a thought for the odds of a Labor premier being re-elected.Bookmakers are offering for $11 Kristina Keneally to get back into the hotseat, and $1.02 for the far more likely outcome that she doesn't.
But it goes without saying that nothing in gambling is ever a certainty as shown in 1999 when Jeff Kennett was $1.10 to be re-elected but was upset by Labor's John Brumby.
Ms Hanson founded Pauline Hanson's One Nation but was then ejected from her creation by unhappy members.
She then founded in Queensland the Pauline's United Australia Party but is not using that name in NSW.
The sources said she had not attempted to register that party in NSW, and there was speculation she was put off by tough registration requirements.
And she will not get a windfall in public funding, as she did after her federal bid for the Senate. In NSW, candidates are only guaranteed a refund of money they have actually spent in campaigning, while federally they get a set return no matter how much they had spent.
Ms Hanson has acknowledged the huge task she faces, but said it was in the interests of NSW voters to ensure "that I am on the floor of NSW''.
Under the system, candidates are elected in proportion to the number of votes they receive, marking squares 'below the line' in order of preference for individual candidates.
Ms Hanson will appear on the Upper House voting slip as an independent.
NSW Premier Kristina Keneally, who today labelled her "racist", said Labor wouldn't be supporting her comeback in the state poll.
And a spokesman for Opposition leader Barry O’Farrell told news.com.au that the party would definitely not be preferencing her either.
"She won't even be last,'' the spokesman said.
Mr O'Farrell said today that Ms Hanson was unlikely to be elected to Parliament at the poll on March 26.
"I don't think she's going to be elected and certainly the Liberal Party and the Nationals won't be extending preferences to her," he said in southern Sydney today.
Meanwhile Liberal campaign director Mark Neeham said in a statement: "Under the NSW voting system people do not have to allocate preferences to Pauline Hanson or anyone else.''
According to NSW Electoral Commission rules, Ms Hanson is eligible to run for the Upper House as she is enrolled on the NSW electoral roll.
Ian Nelson, the Queensland director of One Nation, said all Pauline Hanson wanted was a fair go for everyone and hopes NSW voters will see that.
Read more at news.com.au.