AN OLD timer once told me something I've never forgotten.
The experienced livestock producer had a formidable reputation as a shrewd operator, good stockman and someone who could always pay their bills on time.
As we were leaning on the yards, he ducked his head, and gave me this gem.
"When everyone is running one way, walk slowly in the other direction."
Over the years, I've thought about his maxim and how it applies to markets.
The hint of something wrong on the international front can send domestic markets into spasms.
None more so, of course, than the rollercoaster ride of the past month with the Indonesian live export situation.
I don't want to enter the debate about the rights and wrongs - more eminent, qualified and experienced people have done this.
But I have noticed the impact and fallout.
It's knocked money from store cattle prices, and has even been blamed for taking the cream off the Narromine store sheep sale earlier this month.
It seems many think buying cattle is a bad idea because "so many cattle will flood on to southern markets" and prices will crash.
So time for some facts.
Since 2002, anywhere from 350,000 cattle to 770,000 cattle in 2009, have been sent to Indonesia.
Last year 520,000 cattle were exported annually to Indonesia, all 350kg or less liveweight.
It sounds a lot of cattle but needs to be put into perspective.
Figures from the National Livestock Reporting Service show about 140,000 cattle were killed in Australian abattoirs last week.
At least 90,000 cattle had been sent to Indonesia before the ban, leaving about 400,000 that may or may not be sent to this market.
Those 400,000 cattle spread over the next 50 killing weeks means an additional 8000 head being killed a week in our abattoirs. That's a 6 per cent increase at most.
The wet season needs to be taken into consideration, and so supply might be squashed into a shorter selling period.
The Australian Meat Industry Council says it's hard to know whether abattoirs' killing lists were full, because it is a commercial matter for their businesses.
But an AMIC spokesman did say he "wouldn't have thought that all abattoirs would be running at full capacity".
Look at it another way.
The 500,000 cattle that usually go to Indonesia at the maximum liveweight of 350kg means about 175,000 tonnes of live cattle.
At an average dressing weight of 60 per cent, that means about 105,000 tonnes of beef.
Australia produces 2.1 million tonnes of beef and veal each year, so the Indonesian market represents, on a meat basis, less than 5 per cent of Australian production.
Perspective that might be, but the issue is spooking the store markets.
It's understandable.
There have been up to 600 media reports on Indonesian live exports each day in the past month, so you would have to be living in a cocoon not to take it into consideration.
But the smart operators are looking for the opportunities.
The Weekly Times quoted recent store cattle markets as cheaper and store sheep markets have also taken a hit.
Feed-heavy producers with paddocks empty of livestock might now have a chance to restock.
Sure, it is at the expense of those selling and everyone must feel for producers whose business plans have been thrown into array.
But the negative talk around the yards at the moment has opened the door for others with store and prime markets back in recent weeks.
Some of this might be due to the season turning a bit pear-shaped in some areas, but the negativity from the Indonesian situation is playing its part.
I keep thinking my old friend would be out there buying.
And probably adding to his impressive reputation as a profitable, smart producer.
