AFTER a late winter surge of heavy lambs, the dynamics of the market appear to have shifted to lighter-weight suckers.
Agents said price results such as those at Bendigo on Monday where trade-weight suckers averaged 555-562c/kg carcass weight, compared to heavier export suckers at less than 495c/kg, were encouraging lighter new-season lambs into saleyards.
The other big factor behind the trend is the patchy season, which has resulted in most suckers in the northern and central areas lacking their usual weight and finish.
If farmers don't sell a percentage of their better new-season lambs, they will have to be shorn and, cashflow-wise, they will miss the sucker season.
Livestock manager Rodwells at Bendigo Mick Crapper said the season hadn't been favourable for good weight gain in suckers, and the market wasn't encouraging producers to take lambs much beyond supermarket specifications.
"I don't think you are going to see a lot of real heavyweights as the market just hasn't been paying to make them too big," he said.
"At the moment when suckers are close to the mark, they are being sold, especially as a lot of lambs will have to be shorn this year as they just haven't wintered well."
At Bendigo this week a run of 20-22kg sucker lambs, in fat score-three condition, averaged $133.30 a head for a return of 562c/kg carcass weight, according to figures from the National Livestock Reporting Service.
In contrast, 24-26kg sucker lambs, in fat score-four condition, averaged just a few dollars more at $146 or 495c/kg cwt.
Whether the price premiums for lighter weight lambs will continue to be as strong depends on a mix of the season and demand from restockers.
Agents said it was unclear whether farmers would have the same gung-ho approach to buying store lambs this spring and summer, after profit margins were slim for those who opted to play the physical market over forward contract deals.
"Who knows what restockers will come in. They went in hard last year and for some, it wouldn't have paid off," Mr Crapper said.
The season will play a big role in determining how much weight producers can get onto shorn lambs, as well as being a confidence driver for restockers.
There was an excess carrying of heavy lambs this winter as producers tried to maximise dollar-per-head returns.
But the worst of this backlog appears to be over, which could change the price fortunes of heavier lambs if there proves to be a genuine shortage of export sucker lambs throughout the spring.
Figures show August was a record month for the number of lambs sold at saleyards, particularly in NSW.
The NLRS said nearly 780,000 lambs went through the auction system in August, the highest monthly yarding since 2009 and a 13 per cent increase on last August.
A hot spot was Forbes in NSW, which had its largest August month for lambs in more than a decade, selling 133,000 head.
Forbes agent Adam Chudleigh from Landmark said a resurgence in prime lamb production was partly due to the return of irrigation water after eight years of no supplies.
