OCTOBER is traditionally a solid trading month for sucker lambs.
This spring, however, has been different, casting doubt on supply and prices in coming weeks.
Fewer lambs were processed last month compared to October last year, and key saleyards, such as Bendigo have had one of their quietest early spring seasons in almost a decade.
With all the anecdotal evidence suggesting lambing percentages have been better this year due to the good season, it begs the question - where have all the suckers gone?
The latest available figures show the eastern states' lamb kill was 6 per cent lower last month than October last year.
The breakdown for the main producing states was an 11 per cent decline in the lamb kill in Victoria, which processed only 560,000 head compared with more than 600,000 lambs last October.
Likewise, the NSW lamb kill was down 9 per cent to 325,000 head, according to National Livestock Reporting Service.
South Australia, home to two big abattoirs, did buck the trend by recording a 1 per cent increase in its lamb kill for October.
As a reflection of the lower slaughter figures, lamb exports in October also eased, with shipments down to less than 13,700 tonnes for the month.
Yarding figures have also been lower at many centres despite lamb prices being quite high for spring.
A case in point is Bendigo, which in October sold 129,845 sheep and lambs - the lowest throughput for that month since 2003.
The wet season, lack of sun, and longer rank paddock feed these conditions produced has delayed the sale of suckers this spring and forced a bigger percentage to be shorn, according to a survey of agents who were at last Friday's special first-cross ewe sale at Bendigo. It has been particularly severe in southern Victoria.
Ballarat agent Bernie Nevins, HR Richardson & Co, said the number of lambs from a mob that were making sucker grade this spring was much lower than usual.
"Normally when we go in and draft we could get 60 per cent of the lambs off in the first cut as suckers. This year it has been more like 20 per cent because of the cold conditions and rank feed," Mr Nevins said.
Further west at Mortlake and Elders agent Garry Whitehead painted a similar picture.
"We started our run of lambs three to four weeks ago, and they are certainly not as good and they are going to wool quicker this year," Mr Whitehead said.
He estimated in an average season they would sell 75 per cent of their lambs as suckers. This year that number could drop to 40-50 per cent.
"We have started to shear lambs now to freshen them up, and the summer crops are out of the ground," he said.
Ballarat agent Gerard White, TB White & Sons, said last week's downpour could help improve the number of lambs that would make sucker grade by freshening up paddock feed.
"Lambs in our area have been running a month to six weeks behind other years, but with this recent rain and warmer weather they could come up a lot quicker now," Mr White said.
"There are some suckers that looked like they wouldn't make the grade that now will."
Ballarat agents were expected to yard almost 30,000 lambs yesterday, and the NLRS said it was this time last year saleyard numbers started to ramp-up, peaking at 270,000 head during the second week of December.
However, as the NLRS points out, the overall supply of lambs in coming weeks will be determined by the "weather, prices and producer sentiment".
Some agents did express concern that some farmers were overly optimistic about the lamb market due to prices (very unusually) building over the spring and summer period last year.
"Some farmers want more money than what is being offered now and are opting to shear lambs, but if everyone is doing it and there is a lot of summer crop about it makes you wonder if it will be worth it," said one Western District agent.
"To my way of thinking, $110 now is better than perhaps $120 or $130 in February or March."
The other issue agents are nervous about is forward contracts, and whether the big companies will be as prepared to offer deals like they did last year.
So far there had been little mention of forward contracts, agents said, and while it was still early, there was concern that exporters may not feel under as much pressure to offer prices due to the belief big lamb numbers were still out there.
"With the way lambs are running late, processors may not be under pressure to offer forward contracts until much later in the season, which adds a bit of uncertainty to the market," an agent said.
