TONT Abbott has a chance to improve the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, writes PETER HUNT
The Federal Opposition holds all the cards when it comes to dealing irrigators a better hand in the Murray-Darling Basin Plan.
The Greens have declared they will try to disallow the final plan when it reaches the Senate.
It means the Labor Government needs the Opposition to stifle the Greens' disallowance motion.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and his team could back the Greens and extinguish the plan.
But can Mr Abbott afford to be seen as simply a "wrecker"?
He would be far smarter to put his own stamp on the plan.
The Murray-Darling Basin Authority draft target is saving 2750GL of water, of which 1068GL has already been recovered - mostly through the Commonwealth's $3.1 billion purchasing program.
That leaves 1682GL to be recovered between now and 2019.
The MDBA's analysis shows another 632GL will be recovered from stage two of the Northern Victoria Irrigation Renewal Project and the NSW Menindee and other watersavings projects.
That leaves 1050GL to be recovered by other means, at this stage likely to be further purchases.
This volume is not far off the 971GL the MDBA is demanding from the southern basin for "downstream needs" - to water the Lower Lakes and keep the Murray mouth open.
The MDBA has not dictated how this 971GL will be recovered, increasing the uncertainty over the Government entering water markets again.
These market interventions have inflated entitlement values beyond their productive worth, which in turn curbs drought recovery, growth and exacerbates the issue of stranded assets.
The Victorian Coalition Government and the state's farm lobby have called for the 971GL to be recovered only through environmental works, measures and water market rule reforms.
Ultimately, Victorian Water Minister Peter Walsh wants the 971GL quarantined from the Federal Government's $3.1 billion purchasing program.
Here's where the Federal Coalition could play a role.
Tony Abbott could make Coalition support for the plan conditional on the Federal Government entering a binding inter-government agreement on the recovery of this 971GL.
The IGA could demand a large chunk of the 971GL if recovered through environmental works to boost environmental watering efficiencies, water rule reform and some action on savings from Murray River's Lower Lakes.
Such a deal would test the claims of independent federal MP Tony Windsor and MDBA chairman Craig Knowles, who say hundreds of gigalitres can be recovered through water market rule reforms.
Quarantining all or part of the 971GL under an IGA would keep the Federal Government out of the water market, except for strategic purchases tied to projects such as NVIRP.
Most importantly, it would create certainty for irrigators and their communities.
Such a process would also eliminate the uncertainty created by Knowles' 2015 mid-term review.
Abbott would do well to insist the review is dumped from the plan.
The strategy also fits the former Coalition government's policy of finding water savings ahead of purchases, while still preserving the 2750GL target.
Of course Abbott could still wreck the plan. But that won't stop Labor forging ahead with more water purchases.
The fact is Labor is on track to recover 1700GL, whether the plan is enacted or not.
What really matters is what rules are set around how the water is recovered.
- Peter Hunt is The Weekly Times' state political reporter
