PRICES at this year's calf sales are a bit like a drunk, falling down here and there but getting home and average out all right.
It is the most apt analogy I could think of to describe the price trends recorded in North East Victoria last week at Yea, Mansfield and Euroa, where prices fluctuated by up to $50 a head for heavy Angus steers across three days of selling.
Reports from other weaner sales last week, including Hamilton and Warrnambool, also indicated an unusual level of price variance that is difficult to explain, given the good season and the shortage of cattle in paddocks.
The term "cruel" was used by one market watcher to describe this year's calf sales.
"It must be cruel for breeders to see buyers turn up and pay $850 for calves one day, and then not come back to the next sale and similar calves only make $780," he said.
This description might be over the top, but there is no doubt the roll call of buyers at a sale in January is having a distinct impact on how values play out.
The most obvious example is the influence of meat companies JBS Australia and T&R Pastoral on heavy weaner steers suitable to go directly on to grain.
JBS only operated at one calf sale in the North East last week - at Euroa - and it was pinpointed as the reason prices for the heavier Angus steers were dearer than the previous day's Yea sale, where bidding on the top calves fell flat.
Conversely, a concentration of northern orders at a sale virtually guarantees that the middle run and lighter calves will sell well, and this also occurred last week.
The Weekly Times came across these examples last week:
WHEN the top pen of Howquadale Poll Hereford steers sold for $765, and then the following Howquadale steers made more, at up to $790, onlookers were questioning why. Was it because the calves were EU-accredited, or that there was a big line of 50 head in the $790 draft? Not according to the buying agent from Gippsland.
They were for a businessman client who only wanted Poll Hereford steers for his property.
The agent said: "The client's attitude is that he only wanted Poll Herefords and we've been looking for a line for months. We said we could buy him Angus, black baldy, Charolais, but he wanted Poll Herefords - he doesn't necessarily want to make money from them." Enough said.
A NORTHERN buyer said how he had only a couple of minutes spare as he was interested in a row of Angus heifers that were coming up. But when they began selling, the agents had swapped to a different auctioneer and the northern buyer walked.
When asked why, the buyer said: "I won't buy from (that auctioneer) on principle because he doesn't play fair and always tries to stick a couple of more bids into you."
These are examples of how many elements can affect an auction, and why at times there appears to be little rhyme or reason to market results.
Agents said financial constraints, wavering buyer confidence and more store cattle available are possible reasons for fluctuating calf prices.
But for all the analysis and head scratching, there is very little between sales when the figures are all tallied and averaged out.
As agent Jamie Beckingsale, Rodwells Mansfield, said: "People are plucking out this sale and that sale, saying it was dearer or cheaper, but overall when you look at the figures there is not much difference between them at all."
A case in point was the two Yea sales last week. The Wednesday sale was deemed weaker than the Friday yarding, yet there was only a $30 difference in steer averages.
Elders Yea reported an average of $771 for 2505 steers on Friday, compared with an average of $743 by Rodwells on the Wednesday.
To take it a step further, the opening Wodonga calf sales are being talked about as the benchmark sale for January, and much dearer than southern markets.
But when you consider the price average at Wodonga was still only in the realm of $760 you have to question how accurate the statement is.
To go back to the analogy of the drunk, the calf sales are achieving their price outcomes despite most markets having some stumbles along the way.
