GRAIN markets are a balance between capturing price peaks and selling to the best price of the day.
Little fresh news affected fundamental supply and demand is coming from the world markets. Analysts still speculate about the weather in Argentina and the impact of drought on its corn crop.
Others point to a cold snap in Montana reducing the size of the US wheat crop but this is a relatively small wheat state.
Overall grain growers have seen little change in prices over the past month.
Accordingly, growers are happy to take some well deserved time off and traded volumes of grain remain low.
When many of these grain sellers return from their beach holidays, they will learn there have been brief price spikes.
F1 feed barley into Portland hit around $213/tonne last week.
These spikes provide incentive for growers to hold off and catch the next short when prices spike once more.
But these prices are unpredictable and as buyers continue to buy grain for future shipments they may be able to fill shipments at existing prices.
The highest prices seen in the market for F1 this week were $11 less at $192/tonne.
According to brokers there are limited feed barley shipments scheduled for Victorian ports.
Once export shipments are filled, feed barley prices could fall to the nutritional value of the domestic market which is normally $20/tonne under that of ASW wheat.
The competitive nature of the grain market is borne out in the changes to exchange rates and US wheat futures markets since the start of this month.
Although APW wheat bids by exporters have remained between $200 and $207 delivered Victorian port, the Aussie dollar has appreciated around 250 US cents and the wheat futures have fallen 61 US cents per bushel or $21/tonne.
While not all grain markets are directly derived from US futures, this does outline how important the seller's expectations are on the market.
This lift in the value of the Australian dollar against the US is related to signs of economic stability in Europe.
These have increased the value of the Euro, reduced the value of the US dollar and correspondingly increased the value of the Australian dollar.
Export prices are generally slightly higher than last week. Wheat in all grades and port zones in south-eastern Australia are $2 to $4 higher.
APW is quoted at $200 on a Portland basis and H2 is $2 higher at $227/tonne on a Port Kembla basis.
