PETER HEMPHILL discovers the planet's premium grain is falling out of favour.
World wheat consumption on a per-capita basis is falling.
An investigation by The Weekly Times has found people are eating about 7 per cent less wheat now than they were about 25 years ago.
Wheat consumption in the 1980s through to 1993 was consistently above 100kg per capita annually and averaged about 103kg a year.
But from 1994 onwards, annual consumption has failed to hit 100kg a person and averaged just 96kg per capita.
The analysis is based on the US Department of Agriculture's wheat consumption figures detailed in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, reports and population estimates from the US Census Bureau.
While wheat consumption has been steadily increasing in tonnage terms, it is not keeping pace with population growth.
Wheat is considered the premium grain when compared with other staples, such as corn and rice, due to its higher protein levels.
Internationally renowned CSIRO cropping scientist Tony Fischer - who is writing a book on world consumption of the grain and whether plant breeding could keep pace with global needs - said he was surprised by the analysis.
Dr Fischer, a former head of the wheat breeding program at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre in Mexico, said it was possible that as the world population became wealthier, people were switching away from wheat to higher protein foods, such as meat.
He said there had been a declining trend in rice consumption as the world became more urbanised and richer.
"It is possible that as the world's population moves further into the middle class, people are eating less wheat as well as rice," he said.
Dr Fischer said the trend against rice was due to the grain not storing that well.
He said consumption of corn was increasing, mainly due to its rise as an animal feed.
He said consumption of animal products, such as beef and dairy was rising.
People were also eating more fruit and vegetables, sugar and vegetable oils. "These are increasing quite dramatically," he said. "But I am surprised about wheat."
Dr Fischer said the middle classes in China and India were burgeoning and people in Turkey were becoming wealthy very quickly.
He said Egypt also had one of the highest per capita wheat consumptions in the world.
According to Grain Growers Limited's 2010 report What the world wants from Australian wheat, the average Egyptian ate more than 200kg of wheat a year.
Only Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Algeria and Iran had higher per capita consumption, with Kazakhs and Azerbaijanis eating more than 300kg a year.
By comparison, Australian consumption is about 145kg per capita a year.
Highly populated Asian countries drag global per capita consumption of wheat down to below 100kg.
The Chinese eat about 75kg a year, while Indonesians, Japanese, Malays, Thais and other Asian populations eat less than 50kg a year.
Dr Fischer did not believe wheat was pricing itself out of the reach of the world's population.
Wheat prices soared in 2007 and 2008 as oil prices rose, and again in 2010 when Russia banned grain exports and the Ukraine placed duties on wheat exports in a bid to keep stocks for their domestic use.
The Weekly Times analysis shows per capita consumption reached its lowest point in 2007, hitting 92.9kg/year for the average person.
But it rose to 96.9kg per capita per year in 2010, when prices spiked.
Dr Fischer said the declining per capita wheat consumption was not likely to be a result of rising prices.
"The elasticity of demand for wheat shows it is quite inelastic," he said.
"Poorer people may be forced to cut back on eating wheat when prices rise.
"But the middle class will keep eating wheat regardless."
