PLUNGING temperatures in Europe have market analysts suggesting some countries will lose grain crops to winterkill.
British website Agrimoney.com reported last week the Ukrainian winter grain crop might be halved following a cold snap that pushed temperatures down to -33C.
Crops in other countries, such as Italy, Germany, France and Poland, were also at risk from sustained low temperatures.
Some crops in the northern hemisphere - including in Canada, the US and Europe - have low snow cover.
Snow provides a "blanket" useful in defending crops against the exceptionally low temperatures likely to cause winterkill.
Ukraine's winter grain crops were already in a poor state, partly because of lower-than-normal germination, and a drought that ran from July to November.
The country's meteorological service said recent frosts meant it had reduced estimates of the winter crop by as much as 42-58 per cent, to 10-14 million tonnes.
In its last monthly crop report, the US Department of Agriculture estimated last season's Ukrainian wheat crop at 22 million tonnes.
The US Grains Council estimated the Ukraine's 2010-11 coarse grain production at about 20 million tonnes in its recent annual report.
The Black Sea region has become a critical factor in global cereal prices.
Russia banned cereal exports and the Ukraine imposed export quotas and duties on grain in July 2010, when crops failed in both countries due to drought. Stocks looked destined to fall to disastrously low levels.
The bans prompted global prices for wheat and other grains to skyrocket, despite ending stocks - at about 170-175 million tonnes - being the fourth highest in history at the time.
The export curbs were lifted last July when a bountiful harvest in the Black Sea region was assured, leading to falls in global grain prices.
But Australian growers have complained prices have fallen too far, and it is not profitable to grow such crops.
The USDA also says there is a record stockpile of 210 million tonnes. European grain markets remained edgy last week, speculating Russia might introduce bans on wheat exports similar to those in 2010.
