PROJECTED revenue in Victoria has collapsed by more than $8 billion since the state government won office.
Treasury revenue forecasts in tomorrow's Victorian budget are expected to be $8.3 billion less over the four years to 2015-16 than estimated in December 2010.
The majority of the expected revision - $5 billion of the $6.1 billion less in GST revenue - is due to the weaker national economy.
In the coming financial year, revenue is tipped to be $2.2 billion less than forecast in December 2010.
Expected GST revenue for 2012-13 is likely to be down $1.5 billion, while there will be $473 million less forecast stamp duty revenue.
With Victoria having the highest mainland unemployment rate, projected payroll tax receipts for 2012-13 are $168.4 million down.
Over the four years to 2015-16 payroll tax revenue is likely to be $762 million lower than forecast in December 2010.
Before winning power, the coalition promised Victoria would have minimum $100 million surpluses.
Premier Ted Baillieu told the Liberal state council meeting yesterday that delivering surpluses and maintaining a triple-A credit rating were crucial to the government's economic strategy.
In addition, keeping expenditure growth in line with revenue was also important.
"Base expenditure needs to reflect base revenues; that's a pretty basic approach," the premier said.
The budget update last December estimated the state's average expenditure growth would be 3.1 per cent.
There may be further public sector job cuts tomorrow on top of the 3600 non-frontline positions already announced last December.
Treasurer Kim Wells said earlier this month Victorians should stay tuned about the prospect of further public sector job losses.
The premier has confirmed fines and penalties will be increased as the government aims to deliver a surplus.
It is believed fines will increase by 12.5 per cent and boost total fine revenue by $70 million to around $650 million.
Ahead of the budget, the government has already announced almost $900 million in road projects, a $40 million upgrade of the Frankston Hospital emergency department and $15 million for an intensive care unit at Sunshine Hospital.
A further $223 million will be spent on upgrades to country hospitals.
The new $500 million medium security prison at Ravenhall in Melbourne's west will be built through a public-private partnership and is expected to be complete by 2017.