CHINA and Russia may have big impacts on the global wheat market.
In its latest market update, Emerald Grain said private Chinese buyers were continuing to buy Australian and US wheat, following on from steady purchases in 2012.And UK commodity newsletter Agrimoney.com reports that Russian grain inventories should be depleted by the end of the 2012-13 season and will need to replenish them later this year.
Global wheat prices fell last week after good snowfalls in the US alleviated fears of drought affecting crops but prices have picked up in the past two days.
Emerald commodities and trading general manager Christian Norgard said Australian grain growers could expect more volatility in the market this season.
Mr Norgard said that weather factors were not the only factor affecting the market, with Chinese purchases a potential impact.
"More wheat feeding than normal could have occurred in China over the past year because of high corn prices," he said.
"The market is questioning whether this demand will continue.
"The reality is no one knows the Chinese balance sheet, so it's definitely one to watch."
Agrimoney.com said Russian agriculture minister Nikolai Fyodorov told a meeting of the National Grain Producers Union yesterday state inventories were likely to be replenished in August or September.
That was most likely through imports, as Russian analyst group Sovecon said weather setbacks could cut the grain harvest in half.
Agrimoney.com said an adverse winter had left 12 per cent of the autumn-sown crop in poor condition, with the likelihood some would be resown to peas or sunflowers.
